Mets 2006: Win, Because There Is No Plan B

By Mike McGann
Posted Sunday, April 2, 2006

Well, to put it bluntly: this had better work. There is no Plan B.

That pretty much sums up the Mets’ situation — in the off-season they gutted the minor league system to add the key pieces they felt would win them a division title — or more. If it works, General Manager Omar Minaya and manager Willie Raldolph will gain hero status.

If it doesn’t work — well, the owners and players won’t take the fall, Randolph, and ultimately Minaya will.

The good news for Mets’ fans in 2006 — if not in 2008 — that Minaya has put together a talented, veteran team that should know how to win, if the starting pitching holds up.

Let’s take a closer look at the 2006 Mets:

Starting pitching: On paper, this could be a good staff, with two likely hall of famers, a promising rookie and two veterans. But if one or more breaks down, there aren’t a ton of options in the system.

If Pedro Martinez’ toe is healthy (and doesn’t cause any changes to his pitching mechanics, a leading cause of arm injuries) he remains a legitimate ace and New York’s best starting pitcher. With a better bullpen and a bit more offense (both of what have been delivered for 2006) Martinez would have won at least 20 games in 2005. If he’s healthy, put him down for 18.

Tom Glavine is 40 — but he’s healthy, in great shape and looks to be building on last season’s strong finish. A better offense and bullpen could make him a 15-game winner — and despite his being the oldest guy in the rotation, he is the closest thing to a sure bet in the entire rotation.
Steve Trachsel is coming off a serious back injury that limited him to just a handful of starts in 2005. While he has been a steady, dependable innings eater — his spring hasn’t been anything to write home about. If he can muster a 14-10, 4.00 ERA, that will go a long way to keep the bullpen from getting overworked. A lot rides on Trachsel’s shoulders — if he flames out, the Mets could be in trouble early.

Victor Zambrano is an enigma. He reported to camp in much better shape than in previous years — and really was one of the strongest pitchers in camp until his final outing when he strained his hamstring. Hamstring aside, this guy is supposedly healthy for the first since joining the Mets, and showed signs of cutting down on his walks per inning. But the jury is out — and it won’t take a lot to get Zambrano yanked out of the rotation as he was last season. The problem is there is no obvious replacement.

Brian Bannister is a rookie with the brain of a 10-year veteran — and make no mistake, the Mets need him to step up and round out the rotation. Like all rookies, he will have his ups and downs — but is fully capable of doing what the Mets ask of him, keep them in games and eat innings. A 10-10 record with a 4.25 ERA would be a job well done. Ultimately, Bannister should be a solid, middle of the rotation guy who could win 20 in his career season and regularly post 15-win seasons. He also might be the only rotation guy still here when the new ballpark opens.

Outlook: This is it in a nutshell for the Mets. If this unit pitches as well as the Mets starters did in 2005, this team will win 95 or more games. In short, the season hangs on Martinez’ health and whether Trachsel and Zambrano can keep the team in games — a risk Minaya took to rebuild the bullpen. Odds are one or both will fail, though, and it could be by June Mets’ fans are pining for Kris Benson and Jae Seo.

Bullpen: Just be replacing Braden Looper with Billy Wagner, the Mets’ pen got a lot better. But wasn’t enough for Minaya, who weakened his rotation in order to build a monster bullpen. Aaron Heilman got pushed out the rotation to become the primary set up guy, backed by the hard-throwing Duaner Sanchez and Jorge Julio, both of which have closing experience. Side armer Chad Bradford and lefty Pedro Feliciano round out a deep, flexible and talented pen — which lacks only one thing: a long man.

Outlook: Assuming Wagner stays healthy, this should be among the among the best bullpens in baseball. Just knowing this crew is out there should allow the starters to relax and know they have backup — which means they’ll likely pitch longer and more effectively. In short, if the Mets have this pen in 2005, they win the division. It might be enough to push this team over the top.

Lineup: The Mets struggled through a season with a lineup woefully short of one more big thumper. Mike Piazza could no longer carry the cleanup role — and there were just too many holes in the lineup and too many nights when this team couldn’t get it going. That figures to change in 2006 with the addition of Carlos Delgado, one of the game’s best lefty sluggers — not to mention Paul Lo Duca and Xavier Nady. Rookie Anderson Hernandez should be a defensive upgrade over the injured Kaz Matsui — and many think he’ll be an offensive upgrade — which could make things interesting once Matsui returns from the disabled list.

Delgado, if healthy, figures to be a lock for .295, 30, 95 — a big upgrade from what the Mets got at first base last season. More importantly, he should help Carlos Beltran see more and better pitches — and anchors a nasty middle of the lineup with Cliff Floyd and David Wright.
Hernandez, whose game resembles that of Jose Reyes should be able to the bottom of the lineup — and improve the infield defense. If Matsui reclaims his job, he’ll likely be on a short leash.

Jose Reyes needs to do one thing: take more walks. If he can do that, he’ll score a ton of runs and his base stealing puts pressure on defenses. On defense, he has to potential to be well above average and anchor a strong three-fours of a defensive infield. If he can manage to break a .350 on-base percentage, the Mets offense should be in high gear.

David Wright, coming into just his second full season, already has a lot of buzz around him for MVP. No one would be shocked if he went .320, 35, 115, surrounded as he is in a deep, powerful lineup. He is probably the most complete hitter in the Mets’ lineup — and one poised to become better as he approaches his prime. His defense has been erratic at times, but he works hard at it, has a gun for an arm and should be among the better third basemen in baseball defensively within a few years. Even with incremental improvement, he should be slightly above average there.

Paul Lo Duca is something the Mets have lacked in recent years: a legitimate contact hitter to bat second — as well as a true on-field leader. He doesn’t have a ton of power, but he is selective and puts a lot of balls in play — and he is a proven winner. Defensively — he’s lot like Mike Piazza in his prime: calls a great game, blocks the plate well, but struggles with throwing runners out. Since the Mets will probably be the best running team in the league — not too many teams will be poised to take advantage of Lo Duca’s throwing issues. Obviously, he’s not a better player than Mike Piazza in his prime, but in many ways, he’s a better fit for this lineup.

Cliff Floyd finally had the big season everyone expected from him when he signed a four-year deal with the Mets. If he stays healthy — and he was plagued by injuries his first two seasons as a Met — he is a reliable power hitter who can offer real protection to the big boppers in front of him. He outfield defense if pretty good and he surprises people with his strong arm.

Carlos Beltran is relaxed. That stands in contrast to an injury plagued season in 2005 when the center fielder pressed much of the season. Allowed to move from center stage in part by the addition of Delgado and the emergence of Wright, Beltran should return to his more common numbers, something like .280, 25 HR, 95 RBI. His defense in centerfield is nearly as good as the departed Mike Cameron, but Beltran does it all with a lot less drama, which leads some to think he doesn’t go all out. Instead, he is a controlled player who gets to large range of balls, smoothly and under control. Without Cameron next to him, he should be able to be firmly in control in the outfield.

Xavier Nady was once tabbed as a future superstar, and despite his mediocre performances with the Padres, many in baseball still think Nady will have a breakout season if given enough at-bats. He combines power, speed and a sweet stroke — and after being rushed through the Padres’ system, might benefit from the quiet of low expectations batting seventh in this lineup. Defensively, he is smooth, with decent range and a solid arm — an upgrade over Victor Diaz, who got a lot of innings in right field last season. Nady also plays third base and first base, to offer more flexibility to the roster.

Outlook: the lineup is the Mets’ best since the 1980s, even better than the daily lineup of the playoff teams of the late 90s and 2000. If everything clicks, the Mets could go from anemic on offense to a powerhouse, a rarity in team history. Overall, team defense is probably slightly better, as Nady is an upgrade in right (even Mike Cameron was less than stellar in right), Hernandez is an upgrade at second, and Lo Duca is an upgrade at catcher over the declining skills of Mike Piazza. Delgado is not as good defensively as Doug Mientkiewicz, but probably better than Mike Jacobs. This team will score early and often and no lead against the Mets will be safe.

The Bench: Like the bullpen, Omar Minaya worked to improve the bench, bringing back only Chris Woodward, who plays both infield and outfield, catcher Ramon Castro and Victor Diaz, who lost out on the right field job. New are the ancient Julio Franco, Jose Valentin, Endy Chavez. All-in-all, it’s a strong group — all capable of spot starting and coming off the bench. While Castro is coming off his best offensive season of his career, he is best known as defensive catcher — and may be used late in games to defend leads. Valentin adds more pop off the bench, while Franco is one of the top pinch-hitters in the game. This is a strong and deep group — an upgrade from 2006.

Outlook: It’s a good, deep bench, and it should pay off down the stretch.

Manager/coaching staff: This is a big year for manager Willie Randolph. This team must get off to a strong start, or things could be come ugly quickly, in part because of Randolph’s prickly relationship with the New York media. If there are injuries, Randolph might get a pass — but if the regulars don’t get it done in April and May, the heat could spike quickly.

Randolph won’t be alone in the hot seat, though. Mets’ pitching coach Rick Peterson will be in deep trouble if this pitching staff doesn’t perform. Peterson, the Mets’ CEO of pitching, had a lot of say in the final makeup of the staff — as well as the decisions to deal Benson and Seo. If those decisions backfire, Peterson will take the hit.

In general, it’s a pretty good staff, but hitting coach Rick Down could feel the heat, again, if this group of sluggers fails to perform.

Outlook: Randolph says he’s learned a lot from his first season of managing, and did make a few rookie mistakes in 2005. But now with this roster, it will be interesting to see whether he blooms or wilts in heat of expectation.

General manager: Omar Minaya is rolling the dice that dealing the kids or a bunch of guys just past their prime won’t kill this team two or three years down the road. He’d still like another starter, and could be a shopper quick if Trachsel or Zambrano, or both, falter. He has some room to add payroll, especially if the Mets are in the race.

If all these moves payoff, Minaya will get the latitude to rebuild the team, through free agency and deals. If not, there will be a ton of heat.

2006 Mets Outlook: The explosive lineup and outstanding bullpen should be enough to cover for the weakened pitching staff and keep this team in the hunt for the division title. With the Braves taking a step back and Phillies failing to adapt their pitching staff to their (now slightly larger) bandbox of a ball park, the National League East is there for the Mets to take.

Prediction: 94-68, 1st place, NL East.