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Posted Sunday, April 1, 2007
Not everyone was sold on the Mets one year ago — and while I picked them a year ago to win 94 games and the National League East, this was a team with flaws and the potential for big trouble if any of its veteran pitchers went down with injury.
So what happened? I was right and wrong. They won 97 games and the National League East. But they lost ace Pedro Martinez for more than half of the season and all of the playoffs and coasted to a division title. In fact despite the likes of Jose Lima and Jeremi Gonzalez ending up in the rotation, the Mets hit so well and the bullpen was so dominant, that it didn’t matter — in the regular season.
While only Tom Glavine returns from the starting staff that left Port St. Lucie last spring, all of this year’s likely starting five made starts last season and may end up being a major upgrade — it’s possible the biggest problem with this staff is who will get bumped to make room for Pedro Martinez sometime in July or August.
And yes, there are questions again. The bullpen might not be as good as 2006 and there’s some worry about how this lineup will handle left-handed pitching, after suddenly being unable to hit against it during the second half of the season.
Not much suggests that 2007 should be radically different than 2006, and the Mets enter this season, arguably not as only the best team in the National League East, but the best team in the National League.
Let’s take a closer look at the 2007 Mets:
Starting pitching: Glavine makes his second straight Opening Day start, a year after finally becoming the staff ace many hoped he would be when he signed with the Mets in 2003, and seems primed again to anchor the staff, despite his age. His drive for win 300 — and the end of any doubt in his Hall of Fame credentials — should be a fun distraction during the season.
Orlando “El Duque” Hernandez is likely just as old as Glavine, and while a cagy veteran, his age makes him a likely target for injury and wearing down during the season. Odds are, he’ll break down before Pedro Martinez is ready to return — but the sense here is that if you combine Duque and Pedro’s numbers, you might end up with a very solid starter.
In a year, John Maine has gone from a throw-in on the Kris Benson trade to the Mets’ no. 3 starter — and not without merit. He nearly won a job coming out of spring training last season, and then pitched much better than anyone expected when called upon to help plug the gap when a half-dozen starters went down with injury. After his strong performances in the postseason, Maine looks like a candidate to break out and become a top of the rotation pitcher.
A year ago, Oliver Perez was tabbed to be the opening day starter and ace of the Pirates. Needless to say, things went pretty much downhill from there for the fireballing lefty, first in the big leagues and then in AAA. His season, and maybe his career, seemed lost until he was dealt to the Mets — little more than a throw-in in the Xavier Nady deal for Roberto Hernandez, needed suddenly after Duaner Sanchez was hurt in a taxicab accident. The Mets immediately began the process of remaking the lefty’s psyche, first in AAA and then the big leagues. After a few erratic performances, Perez was forced to pitch in the postseason after Hernandez was injured and he pitched very well on the big stage, seemingly gaining confidence with each inning. This spring, for the first time since his breakout season with the Pirates, he’s been able to throw his devastating slider for strikes. Like Curt Schilling and dozens of other pitchers, Perez seems poised to make the most of his change of address and may end up being the Mets’ most effective starter when all is said and done.
Mike Pelfrey is probably going to be a top of the rotation starter — someday. In his limited starts for the Mets in 2006, he displayed a live, electric fastball, but trouble throwing his breaking pitches for strikes. This offseason, he abandoned his curve in favor of a slider, and this spring he appears able to throw that slider for strikes. Worse, for opposing hitters, the slider looks a lot like Pelfrey’s fastball, with a late break that’s a beast to pick up.
Outlook: I might be in the minority here, but I think this staff is going to be a big improvement over the 2006 staff, and better, a solid bridge to the staffs of 2008 and beyond, with three young studs, Maine, Perez and Pelfrey who could form the core of the staff for the next decade. Glavine has been exceptionally durable and seems poised to duplicate his 2006. Hernandez seems like more of a question mark — but if he or any of the kids flame out or get hurt, the Mets have Chan Ho Park and Aaron Sele around to step into the rotation. Plus, Pedro and lefty Dave Williams will be back during the season, to provide a boost. And Philip Humber should be ready sometime this year and Jason Vargas will be another option to bolster the rotation, should everyone go down.
Despite the general panic, this is a much better, and less rickety, staff than the Mets took north in 2006. Not only is it deeper, but it is chock full of young, promising arms — through cagey trades and good drafting, the Mets have stockpiled a lot of good, young Major League-ready arms.
(Continued)
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