Mets' 2009 Season Preview

By Mike McGann
Posted Sunday, April 5, 2009

What to think about this team? Since the era of the “New Mets” launched in 2005, it’s been a bit hard to track what exactly this team is about, sort of like trying to figure out what, exactly, Art Howe was thinking in managing his bullpen.

We know two things: first, the bullpen will be a lot better -- maybe going from one the worst ever to among the better pens in baseball. Second, this team should score a decent amount of runs, bringing back the core of a lineup that scored 799 runs in 2008, although spacious City Field should lower that number. And maybe we know a third thing: the Mets can count on ace Johan Santana to be dominant after June 15. Santana, a notorious horse in the second half, was unbeaten down the stretch and probably would have won both 20 games and the Cy Young Award were it not for the tender mercies of the pen, which blew game after game that Santana left with a lead.

Okay, it’s a good team, but because of questions both in the starting lineup and rotation, not a great one. This team should win 90 games and stay in contention for the whole season. But can they dethrone the World Champion Phillies to win the division, or even win the Wild Card?

Those are more difficult questions to answer.

Let’s break it down a bit and then I’ll offer my usual semi-accurate prediction:

Pitching: on paper, the looks to be the strong suit for this team. It features a totally rebuilt bullpen and a rotation that returns everyone but Pedro Martinez. But as Jim Bouton liked to say, “you can’t just toss your resume on the mound.”

Barring injury, Johan Santana is to the Mets what Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden were in their primes: an ace who was arguably the best starting pitcher in the league. Santana is coming off a knee injury, but it looks to have healed and his decision, with a lot of prodding by the Mets, to stay out of the World Baseball Classic, seems to have been a good one.

Mike Pelfrey seems poised to emerge as one of the game’s great young starters...except, well, he got pounded in spring training and seems to be nursing a calf injury. I watched him very closely in his final start in St. Lucie Thursday, and he seemed smoother and more fluid than when I’ve seen him pitch previously and he seemed to have good velocity. He did lack command and his stuff was up in the strike zone, which could have been caused by difficulty in getting a good push off his drive leg, thanks to the calf injury. I think he’s a guy you have to watch closely, being young and having had some maturity issues in the past. But his upside remains very, very large.

Oliver Perez is probably the most talented pitcher on the staff. He is also the guy will make fans, teammates, coaches, managers, owners and the media completely insane with his ability to drift off during games and fail to bear down. If the guy ever develops a fraction of the mental toughness that Santana has (and Santana has taken him under his wing), he could be a Cy Young candidate. Until then, Perez, with his new $36 million contract, will continue to alternately amaze and frustrate.

John Maine is coming off shoulder surgery that basically killed his second half last season, before which he was really pitching well. His velocity has been down throughout the spring, but seems to be improving. He needs to be able to get his speeds up, though, because he likes to work high in the strike zone and lesser stuff pitches thrown there tend to get hammered. Still, Maine has an outstanding work ethic and will do the work to get completely ready and if he is physically able, will eat innings and likely win more than 10 games.

Livan Hernandez is a flat-out horse. He may not be wildly effective anymore, aged somewhere between his listed 33 and rumored 37, but he can be counted on for a solid 200 innings, although his ERA makes people uncomfortable. Like Perez, he’s a great big-game pitcher and seems to be fully healthy for the first time since 2006. If Hernandez does break down, the Mets will be able to turn to young Jon Niese or veteran Tim Redding, who once he’s healthy in May should be the long man in the bullpen. Other patches likely to come from Buffalo include Brandon Knight and Nelson Figueroa.

And the pen? Adding Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz might seem like overkill, but anyone who watched the 2008 pen implosion has to feel comforted by seeing both of these tested closers ready to handle the eighth and ninth innings. K-Rod will be the formal closer, with Putz sliding into the 8th inning role, but the pair should be well above average and help the Mets put pressure on opposing teams. Sean Green, the sleeper pickup in the Putz trade, looks to be a solid 7th inning guy and was very solid last season until he was overused. Pedro Feliciano, the lone holdover from 2008 and sole lefty, is back, and will split innings will young Bobby Parnell and Rule 5 draftee Darren O’Day. Brian Stokes looks to be the long man for now and could see spot starting action if rain outs build up early in the season.

Overall, it should be a much better, deeper and useful pen. And lurking with a likely August return is former closer Billy Wagner, who will want to audition for a a new job, following reconstructive surgery...Wagner could end up pitching the 7th inning, which, if he proves healthy, could give the Mets a devastating pen end-game down the stretch.

The everyday lineup: After five years, Jose Reyes has established himself as one of the top players in the game and sometimes it can be hard to remember that Reyes, who turns 26 during the season, is just now entering his physical prime. Blessed with both explosive speed and decent power, manager Jerry Manuel toyed with the idea of moving Reyes to the no. 3 spot in the lineup, to maximize his offense, but decided against it.

Young Daniel Murphy has already established something of a cult following, despite just 131 at-bats in 2008 (if he had two less, he'd be eligible for Rookie of the Year in 2009). He is disciplined beyond his years, a patient, smart hitter who should see a lot of pitches with Reyes on base in front of him. His outfield play leaves a lot to be desired, as he is a natural infielder, but he is a hard worker and should become almost average with time.

What else can be said about David Wright? At 26, he is emerging as the team leader and it is no longer a matter of if he will be the team’s captain, just a matter of when. Oddly, despite coming off his best RBI season of his career, many people felt like 2008 was a bit of an off year for the superstar third baseman, who seemed to struggled with runners on base in 2008, despite his RBI total.

Carlos Delgado looks to be the hitter we all saw the second half of 2008, where his bat speed suddenly drastically improved. He appeared to be the same player in the World Baseball Classic and he stung the ball most of Spring Training. Locked back into his cleanup slot, Delgado will need to be a major cog if this offense is to be as good as it was in 2008.

Carlos Beltran remains of the game’s truly great players, although he might find himself run ragged in the spacious outfield of Citi Field, between Daniel Murphy and Gary Sheffield. For a highly-paid superstar, Beltran, oddly, doesn’t like hitting in the high-profile no. 3 or no. 4 slots in the lineup, much preferring to hit either second, at which he excels, or no. 5. He, more than anyone, must be thrilled at the idea of hitting in front of Gary Sheffield, at least against lefties, who should give him better protection than Ryan Church. Barring injury, Beltran is an elite player and seems poised to have a monster year, safely out of the spotlight of this team.

Ryan Church is something of a mystery. Until May 20 of last year, he was arguably the team’s best player. Then a bizarre series of events following a concussion seemed to kill off his season. Allegedly, he’s completely healthy...but the Mets don’t seem convinced, having signed Sheffield. For the opening series, Church will be the starter in right field. Beyond that, Sheffield should start taking at bats away from him, and whoever hits better will be in the lineup. Obviously, if Murphy fails and needs some time in Buffalo, Church would move to left.

Gary Sheffield, to be blunt, looks like he might be done. At least that’s what prompted the Tigers to eat nearly $14 million in salary. But the Mets hope that a change in scenery and a certain urgency in terms of his career allow him to allow him to show a bit of the fearsome righty slugger he used to be. If he hits, the Mets’ lineup will deep and balanced. If not, he’ll be gone.

Brian Schneider did pretty much what the Mets hoped for offensively, but some in the organization were less than thrilled with his vaunted defense, which is why they considered dealing him this past offseason. Still, the pitchers enjoy throwing to him and he’s solid at throwing opposing runners out. Ramon Castro has a nice bat and decent catching skills, but just doesn’t seem to want to catch every day, which is why the Mets tried to deal him, too, with the idea of signing Pudge Rodriguez. The Mets aren’t thrilled with their catching situation, but a lot of teams can say the same thing.

Luis Castillo came to camp thinner and seemingly more motivated to be the great player he once was. Whether that happens or not, remains a bit of a question. He’s healthy, to be sure, but age as slowed him and cut down drastically on his range at second base. Manuel toyed with the idea of hitting him leadoff, and then second, before sending him to the bottom of the order. It’s almost impossible to gauge what to expect from Castillo this season.

The bench: It should be solid. Alex Cora is a big upgrade of over Damian Easley, Jeremy Reed replaces Endy Chavez and Fernando Tatis looks to get more time in the infield this season, with Sheffield being added. Nick Evans seemed ticketed for Buffalo, Angel Pagan might add depth at mid-season if he can get healthy and Marlon Anderson seems to be the odd man out.

So what to expect with this team? It’s tough to handicap, because this team could win as few as 85 games or as many as 98 and be anywhere from a pretender to a dominant, monster team. And while I’ve got an odd streak of being exactly three games off in my preseason pick, three of the last four years, not counting the 2007 meltdown, I can’t say I have a strong sense of where this team is headed.

Prediction: So, without a lot of confidence, I say 91 wins, second place, NL East, and the NL Wild Card.