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Posted Sunday, February 17, 2008
Major/Minor League position Analysis – RP
Okay… let’s see… there are 25 players on a baseball team… 8 every day players (that leaves 17 left), a backup catcher (16), 5 starting pitchers (11), one backup outfielder (10) and 2 utility infielders. The leaves us room for 8 relief pitchers.
Currently projected for AAA-New Orleans: Steve Schmoll, Ivan Maldonado, Garry Bakker, Ryan Cullen, Eddie Camacho, Joselo Diaz, Nate Fields, Andy Cavanoz, Brian Stokes, Carlos Muniz, Tim McNabb, and Ricardo Rincon. That’s four too many. There’s a good chance that Camacho and/or Muniz will start the year in Queens, but that’s not enough. And, there’s no place to send these guys to because of…
Projected for AA-Binghamton: Joe Hietpas, Kevin Tomasiewicz, German Marte, Jose De la Torre, Nick Abel, Joseph Serfass, and Brandon Nall.
There’s a lot of good minor league talent on these two squads; however, I don’t see any of them becoming stars in the Bigs.
The pitchers I project for St. Lucie looks just as dull: Emary Frederick, Waner Mateo, Rick Morales, Nelson Portillo, Mathias Carillo, David Koons, and Grady Hinchman. All of these guy have so far underperformed, expect for Koons, who needs another top year to turn some heads.
Now, let’s get excited! I’ve got 14 possible pitchers that could be in the Savannah pen, including big-time prospects Eddie Kunz and Brant Rustich, plus three more guys that could develop this year into prospect material, Rhiner Cruz, William Morgan, and Stephen Clyne.
In addition, there are Daniel MacDonald, Yury Santana, Tim Stronach, Robert Paulk, Steve Cheney, Rickey Sparks, Corey Ragsdale, Edgar Ramirez, and Nicholas Waechter . Only MacDonald and Waechter seem guaranteed to be around for one more season.
Brooklyn also looks promising, headed up by Michael Antonini and Roy Merritt. Others in the mix include John Holdzkon, Jason Lavorgna, Josh Appel, Pedro P. Martinez, Jose Bierd, and Kyle Johnson.
Names you will see below this level include: Jorge Rodriquez, Nicholas Abbott, Luis Simeoli, Raul Batis, Santiago Valdez, Luiz Rojas, Nathan Hendrick, Robert Carson, and Nelson Arriechi.
Consensus: The Mets have finally decided to take relief pitching seriously and went out last year and actually tried to draft some good ones. So far, their picks look great, but we won’t know for two more years exactly what the team has. The good news… the Mets won’t be trading anyone with talent like Henry Owens or Matt Lindstrom for the next couple of years. The bad news: there’s no one that talented left in AAA or AA.
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The Search for 2009’s First Baseman
First, the good news… the Mets will have 12 million reasons to find a decent replacement for the decaying Carlos Delgado. That number is reached when you take the $16 million the Mets will pass on paying Delgado for his services in 2009, but instead pay the dude $4 million as a buyout, stipulated in his contract signed by his agent, David Sloane.
$12,000,000 a year ain’t a bad place to start.
First, let’s take a look at who is scheduled via free agency:
Age in 2009 2007 BA Stats
Rich Aurilia SF 37 .252/.304/.368/672
Ben Broussard SEA 32 .275/.330/.404/734
Nomar Garciaparra LAD 35 .283/.328/.371/699
Jason Giambi NYY 38 .236/.356/.433/789
Wes Helms PHI 33 .246/.297/.368/665
Kevin Millar BAL 37 .254/.365/.420/785
Richie Sexson SEA 34 .205/.295/.399/694
Mark Teixeira ATL 29 .317/.404/.615/1019 (w/Atl.)
Frank Thomas TOR 41 .277/.377/.480/857
Jim Thome CWS 38 .275/.410/.563/973
Daryle Ward CHC 34 .327/.436/.527/963 (110 Abs)
Boy, do you think one person stands out here? But let’s be realistic… everybody and his right uncle is going to try and sign Tex, so just because we got Johan this year, doesn’t mean we win the big 1B derby next year. And guess what he’s being paid by Atlanta for the 2008 season… $12.5mil. Obviously, the Mets will get involved in this guy, but is there anyone else worth looking at on the FA list?
First, let’s forget anyone that is going to play at 35 or older in 2009. That leaves us Broussard, Helms, Sexson, and Ward.
Forget Sexson.
Broussard has played only six seasons in the Bigs and has a respectful .267/.328/.458/786 lifetime record, with 84 HRs and 306 RBIs in 2054 ABs. His best year was 2006, with Cleveland (.321/.361/.519/880) prior to being traded at the All-Star break to Seattle for P Shin-Soo Choo.
Helms is an interesting story. Originally a third baseeman, he was signed in 2006 by the Phillies after a wonderful year for the Brewers (.298/.356/.458/814), but lost both his 3B and 1B job to Pedro Feliz and Ryan Howard.
Ward’s been around… 6 teams in 10 seasons… but his best was definitely the 110 times he got up last year. The problem is Derek Lee is also a first baseman on the Chicago Cubs.
There’s a few more options here.
According to Keith Law’s Top 100 Prospect List (you know how much I respect BA’s version…), there are three first basemen in the 2008 top 50 prospects. One, Darec Barton (#38), did play AAA last year and slotted to be the starting 1Bman for the A’s in 2008. The other two, the Red Sox’ Lars Anderson (#28) and Milwaukee’s Matt Laporta (#37), both played ‘A’ ball last year and they are perfectly times to go to the Bigs in 2009.
No, the Mets will never use a rookie at first base… but they would make a trade for the dude playing there now, or whomever lost their job to one of these kids:
Oakland: Dan Johnson 30 .236/.349/.418, 18 HRS, 62 RBIs
Boston: Kevin Youkilis 30 .288/.390/.453, 16 HRs, 83 RBIs
Milwaukee: Prince Fielder 25 .288/.395/.618, 50 HRs, 119 RBIs
Just some thoughts…
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-Ex-Mets:
Giovanni Carrara, Orber Moreno, Victor Moreno and Jose Guanchez combined on a shutout as Venezuela beat Mexico for its first win in Carribbean Series… the Cleveland Indians signed RHP Jorge Julio… the Rockies invited RHP Victor Zambrano to spring training… San Diego invited OF Chip Ambres to ST as a non-roster player… The Florida Marlins designated RHP Marcos Carvajal for assignment…. The Phillies designated RHP Anderson Garcia for assignment… OF Timo Perez had two RBIs for Licey in the Championship game of the 10th Caribbean Series... Yankees signed infielder Chris Woodward to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training… The Orioles signed RHP Steve Trachsel to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training…the Pirates signed first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training…
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-Winter Ball:
Recent minor league signee, RP Joselo Doaz, struck out eight batters while allowing only one unearned run in Aguilas’s 4-1 victory over Mexico on 2/6.
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Baseball Prospectus came out with their top Mets prospect:
Five-Star Prospects : None
Four-Star Prospects: 1. Fernando Martinez, OF
Three-Star Prospects : 2. Jon Niese, LHP 3. Eddie Kunz, RHP 4. Wilmer Flores, SS 5. Brant Rustich, RHP
Two-Star Prospects : 6. Nathan Vineyard, LHP 7. Scott Moviel, RHP 8. Bobby Parnell, RHP
9. Dan Murphy, 3B 10. Ruben Tejada, SS/2B 11. Stephen Clyne, RHP
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How Much “Relief” Does Johan Santana Bring The Mets?
So much has been written about how the signing of SP Johan Santana has made the starting rotation a thousand percent better. Well, guess what it’s done for the bullpen?
This is one way of looking at it… here’s the starting pitchers for the 2007 Mets vs. what looks to be the rotation in 2008 and hat they could deliver (barring injuries):
2007 Starting Pitchers: Projected 2008 Starting Pitchers:
Games; Innings Pitched; Games; Innings Pitched
Tom Glavine 34; 200.1; Johan Santana 33; 219.0
John Maine 32; 191.0; Pedro Martinez 31; 217.0
Orlando Hernandez 27; 147.2; John Maine 32; 191.0
Oliver Perez 29; 177.0; Oliver Perez 32; 198.0
Mike Pelfrey 15; 72.2; Orlando Hernandez 20; 86.0
Pedro Martinez 5; 28.0; Mike Pelfrey 10; 75.0
Total: 142; 815.5; 157; 986.0
That’s a conservative possibility that the Mets relief staff will throw approximately 171 innings less in 2008.
The two most used relief pitchers in 2007 were Jorge Sosa (which included 14 starts) for 112.2 innings, and Aaron Heilman for 86.0 IP in 81 appearances.
There’s obviously no reason to carry more than seven relief pitchers in 2008, barring any injuries to any of the rotational guys.
The sure bets are Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Sosa (recently signed contract), Scott Schoenweis (contract), and Pedro Feliciano.
That leaves two more spots for Joe Smith, Aaron Sele, Duaner Sanchez, Juan Padilla,
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SportingNews.com ranked the top NL team catching:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers. Russell Martin, Gary Bennett.
2. Atlanta Braves. Brian McCann, Clint Sammons, Javy Lopez.
3. St. Louis Cardinals. Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue.
4. San Francisco Giants. Bengie Molina, Eliezer Alfonzo.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks. Chris Snyder, Miguel Montero.
6. New York Mets. Brian Schneider, Ramon Castro.
Schneider's power is waning, but he's solid on defense. Castro had 11 homers in just 144 at-bats in 2007 but is erratic on defense.
7. Colorado Rockies. Yorvit Torrealba, Chris Iannetta.
8. San Diego Padres. Josh Bard, Michael Barrett.
9. Chicago Cubs. Geovany Soto, Henry Blanco.
10. Washington Nationals. Paul Lo Duca, Johnny Estrada.
11. Cincinnati Reds. David Ross, Javier Valentin.
12. Philadelphia Phillies. Carlos Ruiz, Chris Coste.
13. Houston Astros. J.R. Towles, Brad Ausmus.
14. Milwaukee Brewers. Jason Kendall, Eric Munson.
15. Pittsburgh Pirates. Ronny Paulino, Ryan Doumit.
16. Florida Marlins. Mike Rabelo, Matt Treanor.
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The Lovemyteam.com Fan Friendly Seal of Approval recognizes five Major League Baseball Players for their generosity of spirit towards baseball fans everywhere and for their recognition of the fans importance to the game. Please visit Lovemyteam.com to vote for your favorite Fan Friendly player.
Congratulations to the 2008 recipiants of the Fan Friendly Seal of Approval!
Andre Ethier
Tim Hudson
Brian Roberts
Omar Vizquel
David Wright
David is our third repeat winner this year, which shows that last year's award wasn't a fluke. The great news is that David was awarded with a long-term contract from the Mets, so the team can benefit from his warm smile and his great play for years to come, and the fans can benefit from his friendly outlook and his generosity to those that cheer him on. Thanks David, and keep it up! --
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Mack
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