Mack Attack: July 17, 2008

By John Mackin Ade
Posted Friday, July 18, 2008

Pennant: Phils: 44 losses - Mets: 44 – Marlins: 45 - Braves: 50 – Nats: 60

Wild Card: Milw: 43 losses - St. Louis: 43 - Mets: 44 - Marlins: 45

The Mets continue to inquire about RP Brian Fuentes but it will take a one-to-one trade for SP Jon Niese to pull it off…

Mike Pelfrey has given up one run in his last 22 innings pitched, lowering his season ERA to 3.64. His recent results make it seem like he has figured something out and has “turned a corner.” Upon examination, however, we can see that this may not be the case. Pelfrey has had a roller coaster season. Of his 18 starts, Pelfrey has had a "quality start" ten times. Unfortunately, he’s also allowed six runs twice, five runs twice, and four runs three times. But if we look deeper at Mike Pelfrey we see not an inconsistent pitcher, but we see a pitcher who struggles against good teams. Every quality start except for two has come against a team who is 8th or worse in scoring in the National League (with home park taken into account – for example, the Diamondbacks are 7th in scoring at home but 12th in scoring on the road). – BeyondTheBoxScore

According to Baseball Info Solutions, Mike Pelfrey’s average FB velocity is 15th in baseball—right at 93 MPH. And only Daniel Cabrera and Aaron Cook throw a higher percentage of fastballs than Pelfrey’s 80.7 percent. Typically, a pitcher throws 60-to-70 percent fastballs. Pelfrey is similar this way to Chien-Ming Wang of the Yankees. He’s able to get away with a heavy reliance on one pitch because he limits extra base hits by inducing grounders—his ground-ball rate of 49.4 percent is 15th most extreme among big league starters. Pelfrey reminds me of Ron Darling in that Darling had uninspiring minor league numbers and then turned into a useful starter on a championship-caliber staff. Darling managed a 3.88 Minor League ERA, which was nothing to brag about at the time, with 221 Ks and 197 BBs in 311 innings. He defied his Major League translation and quickly became for the Mets much better than anyone could have anticipated by looking only at those numbers. The same seems to be true of Pelfrey. And like Darling of that time, Pelfrey has plus stuff, at least to the eye (and radar gun). So, Pelfrey’s place in the rotation is secure. What, then, to do with El Duque, assuming his rehab stays on track? – BBTF

Billy Wagner was all of 24 when he pitched his first game in the big leagues. Thirteen years later, he was the oldest player in the 79th All-Star Game. ''It starts to be a compliment after awhile," said Wagner, who will turn 37 on July 25. ''You look at it and think, 'Man, I've been here for a while, and I'm still here." He spent his first nine seasons with the Astros but was traded after the 2003 season when owner Drayton McLane ordered payroll cuts. The Astros shipped him to Philadelphia for three players (Brandon Duckworth, Ezequiel Astacio and Taylor Buchholtz) who are no longer with the organization. -- Houston Chronicle

Odds to win the 2008 National League Pennant

Chicago Cubs 3/2 - Milwaukee Brewers 7/2 - Philadelphia Phillies 11/2 - New York Mets 13/2 - Los Angeles Dodgers 15/2 - St Louis Cardinals 9/1 - Arizona Diamondbacks 10/1 - Florida Marlins 15/1 – BoDog

InsideEdge/ESPN ‘report card’ on:

Carlos Beltran Total at Bats: 355

Category % MLB Avg. Grade

Well Hit Avg. of At-Bats .279 .234 B+
Slugging % .470 .441 B
On Base Average .362 .338 B
Quality At-Bat % 47 % 44 % B
Location Performance –
LOCATION: INSIDE .110 .078 B+
Well Hit Avg. -
Location MIDDLE (vertical) .207 .179 B
Well Hit Avg. of Swings:
Location OUTSIDE .145 .114 B
Well Hit Avg. of Swings:
Location UP .189 .111 A
Well Hit Avg. of Swings:
Location MIDDLE .175 .156. B
Well Hit Avg. of Swings:
Location DOWN .105 .102 B-
Fastball Performance B-
Batting Avg. .261 .294 C-
Well-Hit Avg. of Fastball
Strikes .102 .096 B-
% of Fastball Swings
Put in Play 51 % 45 % A-
Offspeed Performance
B- Batting Avg. .271 . 240 B
Well-Hit Avg. of
Offspeed Strikes .113 .078 B+
% of Offspeed Swings
Put in Play 38 % 41 % C
Plate Discipline A+
Chase % Early in Count
(Before 2 Strikes)* 12 % 19 % A+
Chase % with 2 Strikes* 27 % 38 % A+
Chase % of Non-Competitive
Pitches 12 % 20 % A+
Clutch Tendency B
Quality AB % in
Close/Late Games 46 % 43 % B
Quality AB % with Runners
in Scoring Position 49 % 46 % B
2 Strike Tendency B
Strikeout % of PA's
that reach 2 Strikes* 34 % 35 % B
On Base Average with
2 Strikes .294 .271 B
2 Strike Miss % of Swings* 16 % 20 % A-
Overall Grade B

Evaluation of a Past Omar Trade:

8/30/06

Acquired minor league C Mike Nickeas from the Texas Rangers

Batting .229 for AAA-New Orleans

In exchange for OF Victor Diaz.

Batting .281/.357/.549/.906 for AAA-Tacoma (Seattle)

Conclusion: probably neither will make it in the Bigs, but the Mets lost on this one…

Lucy:

Add P – Casey Hoorelbeke to roster from New Orleans

K-Port:

-no Wilmer Flores in the lineup… hmm… but one guy that is in the lineup is OF Rafael Fernandez, who goes into the game batting .342/.402/.481/.883… Rafael is a little bit of a mystery man… played only 3 games for the GCL Mets last year (.625), and there’s no record of him playing anywhere else that year… hit .216 for the DSL Mets in 2006 with five homers, 43 RBIs and 30 runs scored in 65 games…