Mack Attack: June 17, 2008

Posted Tuesday, June 17, 2008

In my continued suggestion to ‘shut er’down’ for the season…

ICF Carlos Beltran hit his 9th and 10th home run of the season last night in his first 2 at bats and raised his batting average to around 30 points lower than it should be; however, there is no better time to consider unloading this contract (which isn’t that big anymore compared to some of the others out there) to some pennant contender outside the NL east. I’m sure the deal could include at least 2 blue-chip AA-type prospects along with some dope on the other team’s roster that has grown hair out of his ears and is grossly overpaid. Omar can eat that portion, promote a healed Fernando Martinez and Nick Evans, and place the 2 kids in AA for the rest of the season… but that’s me.

The Mets should see which teams that need a big-time center fielder and/or run producer such as the White Sox, Cubs, Cardinals and Dodgers, and maybe even the Yanks and Red Sox, would give up for Carlos Beltran. With the Dodgers, the Mets might need to take back a Juan Pierre or Andruw Jones to balance contracts/center fielders, but if that allowed the Mets to get the Dodgers to consider building a package around James Loney, Matt Kemp and/or Chad Billingsley, they should consider it. -- NY Post

Even with his recent failures, Billy Wagner maintains allure for contenders needing a closer. Milwaukee, for example, is loaded at Double-A, and if the Mets would take a contractual counterweight such as Billy Hall, they might be able to get a deal built around a prospect such as Matt LaPorta or Mat Gamel. -- NY Post

Ryan Church, who will be on the 15-day disabled list for another week as he recovers from postconcussion symptoms, spent an hour puttering around the Mets clubhouse and speaking with teammates. He said he was "feeling great." "It's progressing every day," Church said. "It's getting better. I haven't had any spells or anything like that. It's one of those things now, just waiting out time on the D.L." Church's .300 batting average led the Mets before he was placed on the disabled list. But confined to his bed and his couch, Church has had to watch his team's struggles on television. He will continue to do so this week while the Mets travel to Los Angeles and Colorado. -- NY Times

The biggest move this offseason saw Johan Santana heading to the Mets in exchange for Carlos Gomez and some more prospects. The former two-time (should be three-time) Cy Young Award winner looked to solidify a pitching rotation that seemed more than capable of making fans forget all about last year’s end of season breakdown. Coming off of a relative down year—a down year for him was still better than the up year of most others—there were some who questioned whether or not Johan would be able to regain whatever made him successful pre-2007. One of the biggest reasons his performance suffered last year came in the form of home run balls. From 2003-2006 his HR/9 ranged from 0.85-0.97; in 2007 it jumped to 1.36 as he allowed 33 dingers. I recently took a look at his Pitch F/X data over the last year and a half to see if he had done anything differently on hits as compared to fouls or swinging strikes. The results also showed that his home run balls—or other hard hit balls—generally came from pitches not just with lesser velocity and/or movement but also very poor location: Most of his home run balls came on pitches right down the middle. In Johan’s first 60 innings this season he surrendered 11 HR; over his last 34.2 he has surrendered just one.

First 9: 60.0 IP, 52 H, 11 HR, 15 BB, 57 K
Last 5: 34.2 IP, 36 H, 1 HR, 9 BB, 29 K - FanGraphs

 

Mets Minor Leaguers ‘Stepping Up”:

I looked into my crystal ball this weekend and decided to try and predict what Mets minor leaguers will be heading to the Bigs in the next 3 years.These are just my thoughts and my thoughts only:

“Projected late-2008 MLB additions”:

1. SP Jon Niese/B-Mets: - word from Binghamton is that Niese is demonstrating excellent control and command of his pitches and he’s becoming more MLB ready with each outing. Trust me, he will be one of the names when the expanded rosters are announced in September and will join a 5 or 6 man rotation to see what he has. This won’t hurt the Mets overall play in September since they will be well out of the race by then.

2. RP Eddie Kunz/B-Mets: - Kunz is a shoe-in for September, but you might see him even earlier than that. He still has a long way to go against lefties, but what better way for him to learn how to be the next Mets closer than to be Billy Wagner’s 8th inning ROOGY while he works with Rick Peterson.

3. 1B Mike Carp/B-Mets: - Nick Evans had his cup of coffee already this year and Carp will get his before the season ends. This year, Carp has returned to being an all-star AA bat, which means nothing in the real world of MLB (see Evans stats for the Mets this year). Carp is a DH that needs to be showcased before being packaged in an off-season deal, and what better time to do it but in September when the Mets are out of the pennant race.

4. RP Carlos Muniz/New Orleans - the more Billy Wagner shows he’s becoming human, the more Carlos Muniz becomes important to the future of the Mets bullpen. He still needs more work against lefties, but he’s next in line (ahead of Kunz) for a promotion.

5. OF Fernando Martinez – We will see F-Mart in a Mets uniform come September, and frankly, he can leave all his clothes on the hangers in his locker until the following spring. Sure, he injures quickly, but that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be at CitiBank Filed on opening day.

“Projected 2009 major leaguers”:

6. 3B/1B/LF Dan Murphy/B-Mets – I truly believe that Murphy’s future in the Bigs will not be as a Met. Simply put, he’s a 3Bman and the Mets don’t need one, unless David Wright is moved to first base. I just don’t see this happening. Murphy should be packaged with Carp for a successful SP3 in his last year.

7. 1B/OF/3B Nick Evans/B-Mets – with both Carp and Murphy long gone before next season starts, and with Mark-Tex most probably signed either with the Yankees or Braves, it looks live Evans still has a future in becoming a future Met, though I see it as a utility player, not a starter at any of the positions he plays. Remember, Evans was drafted by the Mets as a third baseman, and he played LF for the Mets earlier this year. This just might be the guy that heads up the pinch hitting/utility staff in 2009.
“Projected 2010 major leaguers”:

8. SP Dillon Gee/Lucy - right now, I have Gee as the 2nd ranked future major league pitcher in the Mets system, ranked above guys like Bobby Parnell, Jacob Ruckle, and Tobi Stoner who are not currently on my list. Gee is, as best, an SP4 (probably SP5) in the Brian Bannister mold. His chances of being a Met will first be determined on the success of Jon Niese at that level. I envision he has a better chance pitching for another club someday.

9. SP Dylan Owen/Lucy – It looks like Owen also is progressing nicely and there’s a good chance he will finish the 2007 season at AA. There’s no room on the Mets for all 3 of these guys (Niese, Gee, and Owen), so it will be interesting to see if both Gee and Owen find their success on another team.

 

Zephyrs:

C Raul Casanova has cleared waivers and will be reinstated into the New Orleans roster.

B-Mets

Tobi Stoner’s Double-A career began Friday with a familiar face in the batter’s box. Leading off the bottom of the first in Stoner’s first Binghamton start was outfielder Dustin Martin, Stoner’s former Brooklyn Cyclones roommate, who had been traded to the Twins with catcher Drew Butera for Luis Castillo last July 30. Martin singled on a first-pitch fastball and New Britain loaded the bases with none out. But Stoner limited the Rock Cats to a sacrifice fly that inning – the lone run he surrendered in five innings. Stoner, who received a no-decision in the B-Mets’ 3-2, 10-inning win, allowed three hits while striking out five and walking four. “I didn’t have my best stuff, but I definitely battled,” said Stoner, who had a 1-5 record and 2.60 ERA in nine starts with high-A St. Lucie before last week’s promotion. (The Florida State League team scored a combined nine runs in Stoner’s five losses. That included no support in a 1-0 defeat in his final start, June 7. His four-seam fastball generally sits at 91-92 mph, though he’s touched 95. He also throws a two-seam fastball, curveball, slider and changeup. He showed solid control with St. Lucie, walking just nine in 52 innings. With Binghamton, Stoner finally will be able to step to the plate. His senior year of college, the righty-hitting Stoner hit .465, which ranked ninth in Division II. “I haven’t hit in a game since college,” Stoner said. - AdamRubin

Lucy:

Roster moves:

Release IF – Leivi Ventura
Place IF – Peeter Ramos on DL retro 6/13
Place OF – D.J. Wabick on temporarily inactive list
Reinstate C – Sean McCraw from DL
Add OF – Victor Mendez to roster from New Orleans

 

Clones:

Brooklyn’s season opens today against Staten Island at KeySpan Park.

 

Ex-Mets:

Jason Bay singled, doubled, walked twice, and scored 3 runs

Mike Cameron had 2 hits, a home run, and 2 RBI

David DeJesus went 3-for-5 with a double and a grand slam

Xavier Nady is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his injured shoulder Monday. Nady suffered the injury after crashing into the outfield wall Saturday, but X-rays were negative and the Pirates seem optimistic that he's avoided anything serious. "We don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves until after the MRI," manager John Russell said