The Mack Attack: July 24, 2008

By John Mackin Ade
Posted Thursday, July 24, 2008

Pennant: Mets: 47 losses - Phils: 47 – Marlins: 48 - Braves: 52
Wild Card: Milw: 43 losses - St. Louis: 44 - Phils: 47 - Marlins: 48

“…according to BP, both pitchers have been unlucky, but Santana more so, mostly because of a lack of bullpen support. Considering that the Phillies have the best bullpen in the National League, it’s no surprise that Hamels has been aided by them.The expected wins and losses see Hamels with one more win and another loss if you round up. Santana stays at eight wins but has one less loss. Santana trails Hamels in quality start no-decisions, but trumps him in quality start losses. Hamels gets more than a half-run more on average and both pitchers’ defenses hurt their ERA about equally. Hamels, though, has a huge disparity between his current BABIP and expected BABIP (.086), while Santana does but it’s not nearly as much (.041). It seems like it’s all in agreement that Santana is the unluckier pitcher, but it’s a close one. My methodology is very rough since the quality start sets arbitrary criteria like the save rule, but it gives a good idea of where the pitchers stand when it comes to luck.” –crashburnalley.com

Huston Street. The Mets have been in trade talks about the Oakland closer, as well as a few other late-inning bullpen arms around the majors. And if they were able to get a guy like Street, that would be their dream scenario -- to have an experienced closer who could fill in when Billy Wagner was hurt, or when he just needed a night off. But how many teams are actually deep at closer? And do the Mets really have enough left in their farm system after the trades they've made the past few years to get a guy like that? He may be a pipe dream. -- Newark Star-Ledger

InsideEdge/ESPN ‘report card’ on:

Pedro Martinez Total Pitches: 799

Category…. Grade…. MLB Avg... Grade

Working Ahead in Count C+ 1st pitch strike % 59 % 58 % B
1 of first 2 pitches for strike % 86 % 85 % B-
2 of first 3 pitches for strikes % 59 % 60 % C+
% of 0-1 counts that become 0-2 counts 47 % 47 % B-
% of 1-1 counts that become 1-2 counts 51 % 53 % C+
Command C+ Strike % of fastballs 65 % 64 % B-
Strike % of off speed pitches 59 % 61 % C
Finish Off Hitters C- 2 strike at bats becoming outs 67 % 72 % C-
Offspeed Effectiveness C+ Well hit average vs. offspeed strikes * .057 .076 A-
% of offspeed pitch chased 21 % 31 % D
Overall Effectiveness B Well-hit average (of AB's) * .155 .267 A+
Well-hit average (of strikes) * .056 .102 A+
On-base average against the pitcher * .379 .338 C
% of batters faced who score * 15 % 12 % C+
Dominance B- % of outs that are K's in 4 pitches or less 14 % 11 % B+
123 innings % of complete innings pitched 29 % 31 % C+
Swing and miss % of strikes 13 % 14 % C+
Efficiency C- % of PA's that go to 3 ball counts * 21 % 19 % F
1st batter of inning out % 62 % 68 % D+
3 or less pitch PA's 49 % 47 % B
4 or less pitch PA's 64 % 65 % C+
Battle Tendency C+ % of runners who score * 34 % 36 % B
% of 2-0, 2-1, & 3 ball counts ending in outs 49 % 54 % C-

Overall Grade C+

Prospect Busts So Far This Year:

SP John Holtzkom – real bad start in Savannah… returning to projected form at K-Port but still a long way to go. Combined 2008 stats: 5-2, 5.43

C Mike Nickeas - off the prospect grid… bad trade

OF Ambiorix Concepcion - ya know, the worst thing about re-signing this guy again this year is I have to be constantly reminded what a 5-tool stud turn bad looks like… what a shame…

2B/3b Emmanuel Garcia – was supposed to be all that 2 years ago, now just that…

2B Hector Pellot - what the hell happened to this guy?

RP Stephen Clyne - just an all-around miserable season at multi-levels

C Francesco Pena - just seems to be hangin around at a non-prospect level

SS Juan Legares - this is his 3rd and most probably last shot to turn things around

Zephyrs:

Chris Aguila drilled his 20th home run of the season in the sixth inning to help lead the New Orleans Zephyrs to a 5-3 win over Colorado Springs on Wednesday afternoon. The Zephyrs have won six of their last eight games and received another terrific pitching performance. Claudio Vargas pitched 6 and a third innings allowed two runs, one earned and picked up his fourth win of the season. Jesus Feliciano led the Z’s with three hits including a key two out RBI single in the fifth inning. Anderson Machado drilled a solo home run to get the scoring started in the second inning. Aguila hammered the two run homer in the sixth to join Valentino Pascucci with 20 home runs to lead the team. Willie Collazo entered the game with two on and one out in the seventh and worked out of the jam and worked 1.2 innings. Nate Field allowed a lead off home run in the ninth inning but worked out of it and earned his 8th save of the season. The Z’s and Sox have split the first two games of the series.

B-Mets:

Fernando Martinez, OF, Mets: Yes, the Mets have been red-hot and are at the top of the NL East. But with all due respect, the combination of Marlon Anderson, Fernando Tatis, Endy Chavez and Nick Evans doesn't exactly thrill anyone, does it? The Mets are more likely to go the trade route to rectify that, but there have been rumors about the 20-year-old uber-prospect getting a call to provide a boost. He's actually been healthy for a stretch now, though it remains to be seen if he's ready to face big-league pitching. – Jonathan Mayo

Lucy:

Roster move: Send IF – J.R. Voyles to Brooklyn

Gnats:

Sand Gnats OF Richard Pena and RHP Steven Cheney have been placed on the disabled list, the New York Mets announced today. OF Darren Clark and LHP Mark Cohoon will join the Gnats and be active for Friday’s game with Asheville. Clark, 24, began the season in Savannah, hitting .232 in 23 games. He was transferred to the Gulf Coast Mets, where he hit .360 in 25 at bats. He joined Brooklyn, hitting .333 in three games with the Cyclones. The Baker, La. native signed as a non-drafted free agent with the Mets in 2006. Cohoon, 21, was selected by the Mets in the 12th round of the 2008 draft out of North Central Texas College. The Mansfield, Texas native went 1-1 with a 5.89 ERA at Kingsport this year. The left-hander will replace Cheney in the bullpen. – sandgnats.com

Clones:

Reese Havens (pulled groin) and Zach Lutz (strained quad) will be out for at least a month.

Orlando Hernandez mysteriously left the stadium before Tuesday night’s game and his name wasn’t on the official roster… ???

if you take the subway or bus to KeySpan Park and you mention MetroCard while purchasing tickets to any weekend home game, you’ll get 20% off Field Box seats, and 25% off Bleacher seats. Easy way to save a few bucks for later on at Nathan’s

K-Port:

-Wilmer Flores homered his first time up, his 6th for the season…

VSL Mets:

-the Mets won the first game against the Cardinals, 6-5, which was the completion of a previously suspended game… DH Albert Cordero (.250) went 3-4… the 2nd game was won by the Cardinals, 6-3… two new pitchers… Yoel Contreras (0.00) went 3.2 scoreless innings and Luis Duarte (0.00) got the save after one scoreless inning…

Minor League Bios:

Joe Holden OF L R 5' 11" 175 04-10-1984 Molloy College

Joe Holden was a 21st round pick by the Mets in 2005. Holden was the 1st player ever drafted out of Molloy College, where he had an incredible last season for the Lions. He hit .390 with 49 runs scored, 16 doubles, 3 triples, 13 home runs and 50 RBI (.744 slug, .462 OBP). He also owns the distinction of being the best baseball player that ever went to Molloy.

He was immediately assigned to Brooklyn, where he won the Sterling Award (.291/.361//.368) as the Mets' Most Valuable Player in Class-A Brooklyn. He was 3rd in the league in stolen bases and 5th in triples.

Holden started the 2006 season for Hagerstown (A), but returned to Brooklyn when they got off to a bad start. His combined 3 team, 2 year minor league stats are .266/.324/.380. OnDeck ranks him the 36th Mets prospect. He is a contact hitter with above above-average speed. Holden focused on increasing his power in ’06, thus he sacrificed his batting average. His next step in his development will be to combine both. He’s a very patient batter and has exceptional gap power. A recent scouting report put him as a future .300 lifetime major league hitter. The best part of his game is his defensive skills and his speed. He currently projects as a 40+ SB guy in the majors. His arm is strong and his hustle is second to none. Holden is not a tools-prospect but could surprise the experts by making it to the “Bigs”, currently projected for 2009.

In 2007, Holden started the season on the injured reserve list, but spent most of the season with Savannah (.260/.326/.385 in 304 at bats).
In September 2007, Baseball America ranked Holden as the 20th top SAL player in ‘speed score’.