Mets Prospect Rankings

By Matt Himelfarb
Posted Monday, June 4, 2007

Important Note: Matt Himelfarb was tempted to go ahead and break down the rankings piece by piece, but instead, with the fascination of cherry picking, fantasy baseball, and the newly updated Mets prospect rankings this year, he'll do an extended article (kind of like a chat) answering all your questions within the next week or so. Send your questions to: matthimelfarb@gmail.com to be featured in the F.U. Minor League emailbag.

1. Fernando Martinez, OF, A+ (18) - Despite all the hype, if you’ve followed F-Mart closely, you could make a fair argument that this year has been disappointing (64% GB%; .103 ISOP). Still, just about any type of success at his age in AA is superb.

2. Philip Humber, RHSP, AAA (24) - The Tommy John Surgery cost him some development time, but his control has been solid (2.55 K/BB ratio) albeit great, but he’s also maintained the ability to locate his curve on both sides of the plate.

3. Carlos Gomez, OF, AAA (21) - Tons of projection and promise, but he’s still very unpolished. His walk rate (9.6%) is up substantially. The Mets should let him fully develop his tools and power at AAA this year.

4. Deolis Guerra, RHSP, A+ (18) - At this point, the strikeout numbers can’t even be any type of concern (3:1 K/BB ratio 66% GB%). My concern with Guerra is not only the tendinitis, but the fact the Mets are limiting the use of his curveball.

5. Joe Smith, RHRP, MLB (23) - There’s a lot of fragileness with relievers. That being said, he’s one of the best relievers in the game (29.8% strikeout rate; 72% GB%).

6. Bobby Parnell, RHSP, A+ (22) - Maybe there’s something I’m not seeing, but this kid and his 97 mph fastball, along with his slurvy slider is dominating at St. Lucie (28.2 strikeout rate, 3.05 K/BB ratio, 63% GB%).

7. Nick Evans, 1B, A+ (21) - A nice smooth swing, drives the ball the other way, although the key to his revival this season has been his plate discipline (13% walk rate).

8. Jonathan Niese, LHSP, A+ (20) - Last week, I pounded on the importance of GB% when it comes to evaluating hitters, and, mind you, it makes complete sense why a ground ball pitcher like Niese has had such bad luck this year at such a low level (.373 BABIP; 59% GB%). His stuff, specifically his curveball, speaks for his record, as he’s been remarkably inconsistent this year.

9. Kevin Mulvey, RHSP, AA (22) - It’s hard to argue against his ability to induce ground balls and his exceelent control this year, but even if his cutter somehow turns out to be great, that and a mediocre fastball won’t make him an ace.

10. Mike Carp, 1B, AA (20) - Even if you’re alluded with F-Mart at AA, being in AA at Carp’s age is nonetheless very impressive. There is, however, a reason why first and foremost, we judge hitters based on their plate discipline (8.4 BB% 27.7 K%).

11. Jacob Ruckle, RHSP, A+ (21) - The “Ruckle-Shuffle” will have to carry him and help induce the ground ball’s once he gets back to starting; it might.

12. Francisco Pena, C, A (17) - Aside from some nice work behind the plate, he’s done little to justify the money (62% GB%, .324 OBP. .87 ISOP).

13. Tobi Stoner, RHSP, A (22) - The ground ball outs don’t exactly excite me at such a low level, but his control (2.93 K/BB ratio) should make him a back end starter.

14. Adam Bostick, LHSP, AAA (24) - The athleticism or curveball hasn’t helped him stay away from injuries, or success for that matter.

15. Corey Coles, OF, AA (25) - At least in terms of rankings, I had to ostracize the age factor this time (.386 OBP.)

Honorable Mention: Josh Thole, Sean McCraw, Eric Brown, Brett Harper, Matt Durkin.