The 2008 Minor League Season: A Look Back

By Carl Ganz
Posted Tuesday, February 10, 2009

The 2008 minor league season began with the purging of every player who even vaguely resembled a prospect. Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guera were traded for Johan Santana. Lastings Milledge was traded for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider. Fernando Martinez was recovering from a hand injury that plagued his ’07 season. Mike Carp, after beating up the Florida State League in ’06, laid a big egg in ’07 in Binghamton and looked as though he was a potential dud. The only things to look forward to were the Mets’ compensation picks and two international free agents who no one was really sure of named Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte. Simply put, things looked bleak. Perhaps with such low expectations, it was impossible for ’08 to disappoint, but ’08 turned out to be an exceptional year for the Mets minor league system and a real testament to Omar Minaya’s abilities.

The season began with the holy trinity in Binghamton, by which I mean, Nick Evans, Mike Carp and Daniel Murphy. Mike Carp was a one-time pseudo-prospect who was repeating AA. Nick Evans was a professional hitter. He was drafted out of high school and went through the Mets system pretty conservatively. He hit for power from day one but had plate discipline issues until ’07 in St. Lucie, where his OBP jumped 54 points, and his strikeout to walk ratio went from 2.2 to 1.2. Evans looked destined to be another Mike Carp. Before ’08, Daniel Murphy had put up pretty mediocre numbers as a professional. The only positive on his record was a very successful college career; he had a 1.004 OPS his senior year at Jacksonville University. He put up a .768 OPS in St. Lucie as a 22 year-old, which is somewhat unimpressive considering he has no true position. ’08 began with the holy trinity absolutely smashing the ball. Nick Evans slugged .561, Mike Carp slugged .471 with a 172 ISOPower, and Daniel Murphy slugged .496. They weren’t just hitting the ball, they were hitting with serious power.

Nick Evans and Daniel Murphy played their ways into the Mets major league roster and Murphy looks like he may have a job there. Nick Evans, will either be a professional lefty smasher or go to AAA to improve his ability to hit righties. Mike Carp played the whole year in Binghamton where he had a .401 OBP. Carp got traded to the Mariners in the J.J. Putz deal where he will spend some time in AAA, although I suspect that he will be playing everyday for the Mariners by the end of ’09. It isn’t like they have somebody better.

Binghamton’s other gem was Jon Niese. Before ’08, Niese was all potential. He was a big southpaw. (6’3”-4”) He went through the Mets system striking out a lot of people, but also giving up a lot of hits. In ’07, Niese had a 4.29 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, which is far from impressive. However, I am under the impression that the St. Lucie coaching staff had Niese spend his ’07 working exclusively on his control, which may have been deleterious to his overall performance, although he did manage to lower his BB/9IP from 4.5 to 2.07. In ’08, Niese performed pretty well as a 21 year-old in AA. He put up a 3.04 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP, while continuing to strike people out. Niese earned himself a promotion to AAA where he made seven somewhat impressive starts. He had a 3.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, which isn’t that impressive but keeping in mind that it was Pacific Coast League, which is essentially batting practice. The PCL had 12 players with OPS’s over a thousand, including New York Met super-mediocrity Trot Nixon, which should give you some idea just how much of a hitters league the PCL is. Niese managed three starts in the majors, two not so good ones, and one terrific one. We all saw that Niese has a major league curveball, the question remains though; does he have enough of a fastball to compliment his curveball? Right now, the answer is no. However, he is young, and a mere 190 pounds. He should put on some more weight and that may give him a few more ticks to his fastball. There are also rumors that he is developing a cutter, which would allow him to get away with a slower fastball by having extra movement on it. Niese will most likely spend this year in AAA. Luckily the Mets moved their AAA team and Niese won’t have to pitch in the PCL.

St. Lucie also brought some pleasant surprises. One of the bright spots of ’07 was an apparent abundance of college pitchers from the middle of the draft who were performing exceptionally well in Brooklyn. Dylan Owen had a 1.49 ERA and 0.87 WHIP, not to mention a 5.75 K/BB. Dillon Gee had a 2.47 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, and an impressive 6.22 K/BB. Michael Antonini in limited playing time had a 0.46 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Omar Minaya and company found a number of control pitchers from small schools and filled St. Lucie with them in ’08. There were four pitchers who had success in St. Lucie in ’08: Gee, Owen, Antonini, and Tobi Stoner. The one thing they all have in common is an unimpressive scouting report. None of these guys will blow you away with their fastball or their off-speed stuff, but they still manage to produce.

Owen had a 3.43 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP and a 3.5 K/BB. Owen earned himself three starts in Binghamton where he was pummeled to the tune of a 1.78 WHIP. I don’t think anybody has particularly high expectations for Owen or his 85 MPH fastball. After Brian Bannister’s 121 ERA+ in ’07, it was thought that perhaps control pitchers who throw 85 MPH can still be successful, despite their lack of velocity. However, Bannister came crashing back to earth in ’08, putting up a ERA+ of 74, which is just awful. Owen will have to play much better in AA this year if he expects to make a move the MLB.

Dillon Gee looks to have a bit more potential. He had a 3.25 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP with a 4.95 K/BB. Gee earned himself four starts in Binghamton where he showed that he can play with the big boys. He had a 1.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with a 4 K/BB. He secured his reputation with 10 solid starts in Puerto Rican Winter league where he had a 2.22 ERA. Gee supposedly sits at 90 MPH with his fastball, touching 93. There is some SNY footage of Gee as a Cyclone on the internet (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiMuWze9ptI) that has him throwing 95 MPH, which is probably inaccurate, however, you can see good movement on his fastball in the clip, which is nice to see. Gee will probably start in AA this year, with quick promotion to AAA if he performs well.

Antonini started the year with the Savannah Sand Gnats where he had 13 starts with a 2.71 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He was promoted to St. Lucie where in seven starts, he had dominated with a 1.84 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He was promptly promoted to Binghamton where he had a 3.74 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Antonini continued his solid play into winter league with a 3.45 ERA in nine games. Antonini is a southpaw, which means he can get a major league job without throwing 95 MPH. Antonini supposedly sits in the high 80’s, touching 91 MPH. He has pretty good control and from what I hear, good movement on all his pitches. Antonini will most likely start the year in AA.

Tobi Stoner, began the year in St. Lucie where in nine starts he had a 2.6 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP with a 5.33 K/BB. He was promoted to AA in 15 games, put up a middling 4.33 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He seemed to lose his control, his K/BB dropped to 2.03. Stoner had success as a reliever in the Arizona Fall League where he held opponents to a .227 batting average. He had several successful starts in the PWL, a 1.5 ERA in 24 innings.

One pitching disappointment was Nicholas Carr. Carr has a good scouting report, a strong fastball with sink. After putting up decent numbers in ’07 at Brooklyn, it was thought that Carr was due for a breakout season. He was jumped to the FSL where he struggled pretty mightily. He was brought down to Savannah for a few starts where he returned to form with a 1.07 WHIP in four starts. Carr will probably repeat high A in ’09.

Another surprise out of the FSL was catcher Josh Thole. Those had spent the previous three seasons as a soft hitting first basemen. He did show an ability to get on base. He had more walks than strikeouts two of his three previous years. Thole made the transition to catcher this year with mixed results. Supposedly, he has the arm and lateral quickness to be a good catcher, but struggled this year due to lack of experience. Thole batted .300 this year with a .380 OBP. The big jump for Thole, besides moving to catcher, was his increase in power. Thole’s ISOPower nearly tripled, jumping from 44 to 127. Thole will start next year in AA.

St. Lucie had one big disappointment and one small one. Teenage shortstop Ruben Tejada jumped from Gulf Coast League to Florida State League, and with little success. Tejada’s .401 OBP in the GCL made the Mets organization think that Tejada had good enough plate discipline to handle the FSL, but they were wrong. His .293 OBP was very awful. The one bright side is that he batted over .300 with a .831 OPS in June. The general thought is that he sort of held his own in a league that was way too advanced, so Tejada is far from being a bust at this point. It’s unclear where he’ll be next year. He may be forced into Binghamton due to the glut of middle infielders due to arrive in St. Lucie this year. Hopefully he’ll get another year to learn the FSL.

The one smaller disappointment is Lucas Duda. Duda had a lot of success in Brooklyn in ’07; he put up a .860 OPS. Considering that Keyspan Park is death to lefties, Duda’s performance is rather impressive. Duda held his own in the FSL, he had .358 OBP and a ISOD of 95. Duda clearly has decent plate discipline. The big disappointment was that his power seemed to disappear. His ISOPower dropped from 163 to 135. Duda has earned himself a promotion to AA this year. Knowing that the FSL is a pitcher’s league, I suspect Duda will improve next year. He seems to know how to get on base and I think his power will have to come. With a 6’4”, 225-pound frame, he’s got to hit for power. I think that he will have a Daniel Murphy like jump from FSL to AA.

There weren’t too many surprises in Savannah in ’08. There were only two hitters worth talking about: Francisco Pena, and Greg Veloz. Veloz spent half ’07 playing well in rookie ball, and the other half stinking it up in Savannah. He spent ’08 repeating Savannah with some success. He had a .741 OPS, which isn’t all that impressive except that Veloz is only 20 years old and a second baseman. He also stole 28 bases, which is nice except he was thrown out 12 times as well. Veloz finished ’08 in St. Lucie where he struggled. At this point, Veloz is a prospect based on his potential tools more than his performance. He’ll spend ’09 in St. Lucie where he’ll have to fight for playing time with at least 3 other middle infielders.

Pena was a well thought of very highly when he was signed as a teenager two years ago. The Mets were very aggressive with Pena, placing him in Savannah as a 17 year-old. Pena responded by batting .210 with no power. He repeated Savannah where his numbers improved, but were still disappointing. He had a .308 OBP and almost four times as many strikeouts as walks. One encouraging sign was that his ISOPower went up 43 points. Pena as a teenager is already 230-pounds. One would have to imagine that more power would come out of Pena’s rotund frame. Pena has earned himself a promotion to St. Lucie this year, where I suspect he will struggle against the FSL pitching. That doesn’t mean that Pena won’t ultimately amount to anything, I just don’t see ’09 being Pena’s breakout year.

There were several pitchers who pitched reasonably well in Savannah, the main one being Maikel Cleto who was a part of the J.J. Putz trade. The other two were Scott Moviel and Angel Calero. Moviel is a giant, standing at 6’11”. Moviel is a sinkerballer, in the mold of Mike Pelfrey. Although he doesn’t throw as hard as a 6’11”er should, he has sinking movement that forces a lot of ground balls. He had a 1.71 GO/AO in Savannah. Moviel got one start in St. Lucie where he threw five shutout innings, showing that Moviel is ready for the next level. Moviel made a lot of progress in ’08, he was awful in April, (a WHIP of 2.00) but worked on his mechanics and has steadily improved since. I see Moviel being successful in St. Lucie next year.

Angel Calero has put up pretty good numbers since ’07. He played most of ’07 in rookie ball before getting two starts in Savannah. He made 12 starts in Savannah in ’08 where he had a 2.57 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, with a K/BB just below four and almost a strikeout per inning. He was promoted to St. Lucie where four abysmal starts and was then shut down for the rest of the season. Calero will start the year in St. Lucie, hopefully he’ll be healthy and continue his good performance.

Savannah also had some disappointments. Former UCLA closer Brandon Rustich was brought to Savannah in an attempt to use his fastball, slider combination as a starter. Due to injuries, Rustich season was limited to 49 innings. In his brief playing time, he performed reasonably well with a 1.17 WHIP and a strikeout per inning. Rustich still has some injury concerns but hopefully he’ll be able to recover.

Each of the last few years, Brooklyn has been filled with unknown pitchers who perform over their heads. ’08 brought more, Scott Shaw, Christopher Schwinden, and Jeffrey Kaplan. However, ’08, unlike other years, brought two serious arms, Brad Holt, and Jenrry Mejia. Unlike many other Brooklyn starters of the past, Holt and Mejia can dial their fastballs up to 100 MPH, or at least that’s the rumor. Holt was drafted in the 1st round based on his fastball, which apparently goes fast and sinks. He struck out more than a batter per inning in college. He went to Brooklyn where he impressed, showing that he had a plus breaking pitch (a slurve I believe) to go along with his major league fastball. He posted a 11.9 K/9IP in Brooklyn with a 1.05 WHIP. Holt’s progress as a starter depends on the development of his changeup. The difference between him being a reliever or a starter depends on whether he is a two-pitch pitcher or not. He’ll probably start the year in St. Lucie.

Mejia began the year with 15 amazing innings in rookie ball. He was promoted to Brooklyn where, in 11 starts, he posted a 3.49 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP with just under a strikeout per inning. Mejia’s numbers aren’t that impressive until you realize that he was a mere 18 year old playing against 22 year olds. The rumor is that Mejia can touch 100 MPH with his fastball, but many scouts say he looks like a little kid at a carnival trying to throw the ball as hard as he can. In other words, his motion looks forced, which is a bad omen. Very few guys who throw 100 MPH stay healthy and Mejia looks like a prime candidate to throw his arm out. That having been said, if Mejia stays healthy, could have electric stuff. He’s flashed a plus breaking pitch but at 18 years of age, you can’t expect too much, he’s no Doc Gooden.

Brooklyn also offered a number of interesting hitters. The Mets’ first pick in the draft was Ike Davis, a 1B/OF/LHP. He played first for Brooklyn where he struggled. He had a .326 OBP and a .326 slugging percentage, meaning he failed to get on base or hit for power. I’m prepared to reserve judgment of Davis for now. There are a number of reasons; he was tired after playing a full season of college ball where he went deep into the playoffs with Arizona. The Cyclones play in Keyspan Park, which is notoriously hard on lefties. Davis will go to St. Lucie next year where he may struggle; the FSL is a pitcher’s league. Some scouts suggested that Davis might have been a metal bat hitter. If all else fails, Davis is a southpaw who can get his fastball into the 90’s.

One interesting character is Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Kirk played centerfield for Brooklyn where he showed that he was a terrific fielder. He posted a .348 OBP, which is acceptable. He stuck out more than you’d like and he failed to hit for any power. He’ll probably move to St. Lucie where he will most likely continue being a middling hitter who fields. He is a big kid at 6’3”, and should continue filling out, which may add some power, although it may also take away from his range.
The Mets’ second pick was Reese Havens (or David Reese Havens). He’s a shortstop who looks to have plus power. Although he was hurt for most of ’08, he still managed to have a .471 slugging percentage in 23 games. Havens looks like a prime candidate to move to second base. If Havens can put up decent power numbers from second base, he’ll certainly have a spot on a major league team someday.

There were a few other interesting characters, Eric Campbell, Sean Ratliff, Jordan Abruzzo, Josh Satin, and Zach Lutz. Lutz was the only one to put up really impressive numbers. Lutz can flat out hit, in 24 games he put up a .956 OPS. The problem with Lutz is he keeps getting hurt.

Rookie ball had a number of surprises. Omar Minaya has been very active in Latin America and the benefit has finally reached the states. The two major imports are Wilmer Flores and Jefry Marte. There have been several under appreciated imports as well, Stefan Welch (from Australia), and Cesar Puello. Flores looks like he is the next big thing. He had a .350 OBP and a .490 slugging percentage, which are really serious numbers when you take into account he should be a junior in high school. An even better sense of Flores’ accomplishments, is his posting of a 180 ISOPower with braces on his teeth. There are some questions about whether he can handle shortstop as he continues growing. However, if he keeps hitting, he’ll find a place to field.

If it hadn’t been for Flores superb performance, more people would have been talking about Marte. Marte as a 17 year old posted a .398 OBP and a .532 slugging percentage, even better numbers than Flores. Marte is a year older than Flores and was in the Gulf Coast League. (Wilmer was in a the Appalachian league, which is more advanced.) Nonetheless, Marte’s performance was impressive. There were some concerns about his fielding at third base. He had a not so good .821 fielding percentage. To give you some perspective, Mat Gamel, Brewers third base prospect, who is considered Ryan Braun without the fielding ability, had a .878 fielding percentage during his minor league career. The consensus is that Marte will have to move to first base next year in the Sally League.
Australian import, Stefan Welch, made progress in his second professional year. The power potential from his 6’3” frame finally started to show. His ISOPower this season was 211. He also showed some speed with eight triples and four stolen bases without getting caught. Welch played many different positions this year. He’ll play opposite Marte next year, meaning, if Marte plays first, Welch plays third, if Marte plays third, Welch plays first.

Cesar Puello was far from exceptional. He put up numbers that show potential, but nothing astounding. He batted .305 with a ISOD of 45 and no power. Puello showed some speed as he stole 13 bases and was caught stealing 5 times. Puello shows the potential to be a solid outfielder. He had a range factor of 1.55 and will probably be in Savannah, playing right field.

The Mets had a few other surprises in rookie ball. Second baseman Alonzo Harris walloped the ball to the tune of a .889 OPS. He showed some speed with seven steals and a 3.89 range factor. There were also several pitchers who performed well. Jeurys Familia started eleven games as an 18 year old. He had just under a 3 K/BB with a 2.79 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Familia’s biggest asset is a mid 90’s fastball, facilitated by his 6’3” frame. Robert Carson also impressed this year. The 6’3”, 220-pound southpaw flashed a sinking fastball with decent velocity and a slider. He began the year in the GCL where he had five awesome starts, having over a strikeout per inning, a 1.57 ERA, a 0.74 WHIP and almost 5 K’s per BB. He was promoted to the Appalachian league where he had control problems. His WHIP jumped up to 1.53 but he was able to maintain a 1.76 ERA because of his groundball tendencies. He gave up only one homerun the entire year.

As a whole, the Mets system made a lot of progress this year and offered a lot to look forward to in ’09. Savannah should be a lot of fun to watch with Welch and Marte at the corners and Flores and Harris up the middle. St. Lucie should be fun with its abundance of middle infielders and a pitching staff made up of Holt, Mejia, Moviel and Calero. Binghamton with a rotation anchored by Gee and several decent hitters like Duda and Thole. Buffalo’s inaugural season as the Mets’ affiliate will offer a range of AAAAer’s and guys like Niese and Evans. There is also IFA Aderlin Rodriguez who should come to the US next year and many speculate could be next year’s Flores or Marte. There is good reason to be hopeful…